Bayes Theorem

Publication Title: 
Annals of Internal Medicine

A reflection on the scientific behavior of adherents of conventional medicine toward one form of alternative medicine-homeopathy-teaches us that physicians do reject seemingly solid evidence because it is not compatible with theory. Further reflection, however, shows that physicians do the same within conventional medical science: Sometimes they discard a theory because of new facts, but at other times they cling to a theory despite the facts. This essay highlights the seeming contradiction and discusses whether it still permits the building of rational medical science.

Author(s): 
Vandenbroucke, J. P.
de Craen, A. J.
Publication Title: 
Journal of Alternative and Complementary Medicine (New York, N.Y.)

Forty percent of general practitioners in the Netherlands practice homeopathy. With over 100 homeopathic medical schools, homeopathy is practiced in India along with conventional Western medicine in government clinics. In Britain, 42% of general practitioners refer patients to homeopaths. Two recent meta-analyses of homeopathy both indicate that there is enough evidence to show that homeopathy has added effects over placebo. Against this evidence is a backdrop of considerable scientific scepticism.

Author(s): 
Vallance, A. K.
Publication Title: 
PloS One

Like most complex phenotypes, exceptional longevity is thought to reflect a combined influence of environmental (e.g., lifestyle choices, where we live) and genetic factors. To explore the genetic contribution, we undertook a genome-wide association study of exceptional longevity in 801 centenarians (median age at death 104 years) and 914 genetically matched healthy controls.

Author(s): 
Sebastiani, Paola
Solovieff, Nadia
Dewan, Andrew T.
Walsh, Kyle M.
Puca, Annibale
Hartley, Stephen W.
Melista, Efthymia
Andersen, Stacy
Dworkis, Daniel A.
Wilk, Jemma B.
Myers, Richard H.
Steinberg, Martin H.
Montano, Monty
Baldwin, Clinton T.
Hoh, Josephine
Perls, Thomas T.
Publication Title: 
PloS One

Like most complex phenotypes, exceptional longevity is thought to reflect a combined influence of environmental (e.g., lifestyle choices, where we live) and genetic factors. To explore the genetic contribution, we undertook a genome-wide association study of exceptional longevity in 801 centenarians (median age at death 104 years) and 914 genetically matched healthy controls.

Author(s): 
Sebastiani, Paola
Solovieff, Nadia
Dewan, Andrew T.
Walsh, Kyle M.
Puca, Annibale
Hartley, Stephen W.
Melista, Efthymia
Andersen, Stacy
Dworkis, Daniel A.
Wilk, Jemma B.
Myers, Richard H.
Steinberg, Martin H.
Montano, Monty
Baldwin, Clinton T.
Hoh, Josephine
Perls, Thomas T.
Publication Title: 
Biology Letters

Resveratrol has shown evidence of decreasing cancer incidence, heart disease, metabolic syndrome and neural degeneration in animal studies. However, the effects on longevity are mixed. We aimed to quantify the current knowledge of life extension from resveratrol. We used meta-analytic techniques to assess the effect resveratrol has on survival, using data from 19 published papers, including six species: yeast, nematodes, mice, fruitflies, Mexican fruitflies and turquoise killifish. Overall, our results indicate that resveratrol acts as a life-extending agent.

Author(s): 
Hector, Katie L.
Lagisz, Malgorzata
Nakagawa, Shinichi
Publication Title: 
Statistics in Medicine

Epigenetics is the study of changes to the genome that can switch genes on or off and determine which proteins are transcribed without altering the DNA sequence. Recently, epigenetic changes have been linked to the development and progression of disease such as psychiatric disorders. High-throughput epigenetic experiments have enabled researchers to measure genome-wide epigenetic profiles and yield data consisting of intensity ratios of immunoprecipitation versus reference samples.

Author(s): 
Wang, Xinlei
Zang, Miao
Xiao, Guanghua
Publication Title: 
Health Economics

This paper presents results on the valuation of health risks in the presence of altruism. The contingent valuation method is utilised in a split sample experiment for estimating the private and public values in reducing the risk of flu. Data modelling for the dichotomous choice method follows a Bayesian approach, which accounts for zero responses and is adequate for the comparison of small sample results.

Author(s): 
AraÒa, Jorge E.
LeÛn, Carmelo J.
Publication Title: 
Health Technology Assessment (Winchester, England)

BACKGROUND: Congenital lower urinary tract obstruction (LUTO) is a disease associated with high perinatal mortality and childhood morbidity. Fetal vesicoamniotic shunting (VAS) bypasses the obstruction with the potential to improve outcome. OBJECTIVE: To determine the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and patient acceptability of VAS for fetal LUTO. DESIGN: A multicentre, randomised controlled trial incorporating a prospective registry, decision-analytic health economic model and preplanned Bayesian analysis using elicited opinions.

Author(s): 
Morris, R. K.
Malin, G. L.
Quinlan-Jones, E.
Middleton, L. J.
Diwakar, L.
Hemming, K.
Burke, D.
Daniels, J.
Denny, E.
Barton, P.
Roberts, T. E.
Khan, K. S.
Deeks, J. J.
Kilby, M. D.
Publication Title: 
Current Opinion in Anaesthesiology

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Studies from the anesthesiology literature published in the last 2 years were selected to illustrate the most important developments in the field of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling. RECENT FINDINGS: The pharmacokinetic models focused on incorporating covariate, especially age for pediatric-geriatric use, and altered physiological states. The pharmacodynamic models studied the effect of rate of anesthetic administration, age, experimental conditions, and delay within the monitor on estimation of drug concentration in the biophase.

Author(s): 
Sadean, Mihai R.
Glass, Peter S. A.
Publication Title: 
Anesthesia and Analgesia

BACKGROUND: We have previously shown that red hair is associated with increased desflurane requirement for immobility, compared with dark hair. The effect of red hair on IV anesthetic requirement remains unknown. We tested the hypothesis that the propofol concentration in the effect site associated with half maximal electroencephalogram response, Ce50, is at least 50% higher in subjects with red hair.

Author(s): 
Doufas, Anthony G.
Orhan-Sungur, Mukadder
Komatsu, Ryu
Lauber, Rolf
Akça, Ozan
Shafer, Steven L.
Sessler, Daniel I.

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